Forecasting: Why stories of China teaming up with the U.S. over Inga-3 are overblown

A lot of hay was made during the U.S.-Africa Summit about China possibly teaming up with the U.S. over the Inga-3 dam. I was quite unhappy with the quality of this coverage, as anyone could find out that this very project has been in the works for months with a quick Google search (this is the first thing that popped up for me), making this announcement not particularly newsworthy. I have a sneaking suspicion that, since the initial consortium of Chinese companies who will probably win the bid are SOEs with good relations with China's EXIM bank, and that Sicomines looks to be moving ahead in the DRC, and that Sinohydro is involved with both projects, that this is a public relations move by Chinese officials to lock in a certain amount of U.S. financing and construction and threaten the dam project with shutdown if the IMF looks to renegotiate Sicomines again. It also made China look particularly magnanimous during the summit while Chinese-language outlets were slamming the entire concept. Considering some of the rumored reasons why the Inga 3 collaboration shut down last time (happy to tell you in private), I am quite skeptical of the viability of this project.

Attending: A discussion on China's future role in Africa

On Wednesday, I dropped by GWU to check out A Discussion on China's Future Role in Africa, where Lula Chen of the Sino-African Institute of Sister Cities International talked about trilateral partnerships between U.S., African, and Chinese cities.

That is not a typo: trilateral partnerships!

I do not know whether trilateral Africa-U.S.-Chinese cooperation is a holy grail or a cosmic evil (there are a not insubstantial amount of people who hate the very idea of that collaboration), but I do know that it is rare. And by rare, I mean I had never heard of it until that point. So obviously, I was quite curious about the topic.

Chen started out by giving a background on Sister Cities International, a post-World War II American program designed to foster citizen diplomacy (ever notice that a lot of U.S. sister cities are in Germany and Japan? I did not until I went to this talk). Then she explained how there were quite a few African cities that wanted more collaboration with the Chinese, and that Sister Cities worked to facilitate that. Also, American cities wanted to attract Chinese investment and used the program as a bridge (hopefully) for future projects.

How did a project work? First, an American city had to initiate it, such as Denver. They would reach out to their Chinese counterparts in Kunming and decide on which sectors they would engage. They would then meet with their African sister-city counterparts in Nairobi and discuss whether there were any possibilities for collaboration within their sectors. Since all three cities are high-altitude cities that deal with water conservation issues, they decided to hold a water-expert exchange as well as renovate a school, fixing up the sanitation system. There are other partnerships between Zomba, Urbana, and Guangzhou; and Osogbo, Asheville/Raleigh, and Xiangyang. All the projects were small in scale and emphasized the specialties of their respective cities (such as composting in Urbana).

With Friends Like These...

There was an interesting connection I noticed when reading over my tweeter feed today.

Tarila Marclint Ebiede, a PhD candidate in the political science department at KU Lueven, linked to this Reuters article about South Sudan wanting international support for a new airline and airport. There was a passage that caught my eye:

The new country will also need to bring in experts to help set up the airline, he said. He did not say how long it might take to get the airline running or name any of the potential investors.
The biggest carriers in the region include companies like Kenya Airways (KQNA.NR) and Ethiopian Airlines. South Sudan said last week China would provide a $158 million loan to help finish a new airport in Juba.
The work will be done by Chinese companies and supervised by South Sudan's transport ministry, Malek said.
"Once we're satisfied, we tell the minister of finance ... to tell the Chinese Axim Bank that this part of work has been done, you pay that company," he said.

That sounds like a really great deal for South Sudan, China, and the Chinese Exim Bank. If an American NGO wants to gain traction with African governments, perhaps the Enough Project should have chipped in some money. China did a masterful job of improving the, at times quite acrimonious, relationships with the people of Sudan and South Sudan.

I then came across a set of juicy quotes from the recent video interview with Malawian president Joyce Banda:

"China doesn't keep us waiting for two years. China will decide today and will go ahead. The next day you sign, and work starts … so, the choice for Africa is: do I want to have a road next year, or do I want to stay for two years discussing about human rights and governance before we can even talk about the road?"

These were broadcast by Tolu Ogunlesi, a first-rate journalist and a prolific tweeter. The video interview was made by Lucy Lamble, Nick Francis and Marc Francis, the latter two famous in Sino-Africa circles for their documentary "When China Met Africa." President Banda has a good relationship with the U.S., so for her to make such a blunt assessment of the difficulties in dealing with the U.S. and Europe when it comes to infrastructure projects is significant. 

The U.S. knows all too well that China offers very attractive aid and trade packages, it just stings when another leader acknowledges it. In the span of a week, China is agreeing to finance the completion of an airport in a country which does not hold the highest regard for the Chinese, and the president of a country friendly to the U.S. is pointing out just how the Americans are failing said country. I still believe the U.S. and China operate quite similarly in the African continent, but my view is not what matters. What President Banda thinks is what matters.

One Continent, Two Approaches: The U.S. and China in Africa

I went to a fascinating event here in Washington DC held by the Center for American Progress. Ambassador David Shinn and Joshua Eisenman were on the panel, who together just wrote the Sino-Africa book that I myself wanted to write when I was younger, so kudos to them! Anything they say pertaining Sino-African relations should be listened to.

Please click on the link and watch the video. I did manage to ask a question, and I was heartened by the response.